导语:在房地产行业在稳步回升的同时,外部环境却正在酝酿着极大的变数:首先,国际经济环境不容乐观,国内宏观经济面临的不确定性增强;其次,新一届政府的执政理念正在发生转变,在其对房地产行业明确表态之前,体系外因素对行业的影响存在一定的变数。面临种种不确定变数,下半年市场将如何演绎,也是我们所共同关注的焦点。

今年以来,国际、国内宏观经济环境跌宕起伏、变数颇多。国际上,虽然美国经济出现反弹征兆,但欧洲、日本等其他发达国家的好消息并不如预期;国内方面,去年下半年开始的经济企稳却已出现反复迹象,地方债陆续到期和新一届政府推行经济结构调整将有可能令中国经济出现一波集中回落。 ... [全文]
上半年,房地产业呈现出“一冷四热”的局面,“一冷”为:今年初的“国五条”调控政策在出台后全面遇冷,在地方层面上被普遍消极对待,而成为调控主基调的房价控制目标对市场的影响仅局限于短期;而“四热”则为:行业投资环境全面回暖、楼市成交量持续回升、重点城市房价普涨、土地市场量价齐升。 ... [全文]
近段时间,外界对下半年房地产调控加压的担心开始越来越多地出现,判断的主要依据就是:上半年“国五条”的全面失效,房价上涨的势头没有得到遏制。对此,我们认为下半年调控加码的可能性极小,主要原因有两点:第一,宏观经济面临的不确定性增强;第二,新一届政府的执政理念正在发生转变。 ... [全文]
房地产调查
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聚焦房地产行业半年数据

销售

2013年上半年,商品房累计销售面积为51,433万平方米,同比上升28.7%。比2012年上半年的同比增长高38.7个百分点。商品房累计销售金额为33,376亿元,同比上升43.2%,比2012年上半年同比增长高48.4百分点。

土地

今年以来,房企拿地策略发生细微转变,与之相对应,土地市场也呈冷热不均现状,一、二线城市相较三、四线城市的热度更高一些。从具体数据来看,今年上半年一、二线城市土地成交量价涨幅显著,而三、四线城市表现相对平稳一些。

降价营销

从房地产开发投资来看,2013年1-5月中投资额达26798亿元,较去年同期增长20.60%,同比增速正走出前两年连续下跌的趋势,在经济企稳回升、房地产调控政策失效的背景下,行业信心回升,房地产行业开发投资力度明显加大。

融资

7月30日,国土部发布的数据显示,上半年我国建设用地供应总量同比保持增长,其中住房用地供应增长36.9%,高于近5年同期平均水平。

人事

今年初,北京一家上市房企就因可售项目不足而裁撤了大量销售和行政人员。更有些深陷资金链泥潭的企业已开始出售项目,裁人更是不在话下。

战略

从历史经验来看,市场回暖周期应当经历三个阶段:其一,市场筑底之后刚需首先回暖;其二,市场改善型需求逐渐释放;其三,部分持观望态度的投资型需求逐渐入市。

聚焦房地产行业2013年中报主要财务数据
证券代码证券名称本期营业收入上年同期增长率(%)本期营业利润上年同期增长率(%)本期归属母公司股东的净利润上年同期增长率(%)
000002.SZ万科A4,139,034.55683,072,299.121634.72710,521.1008601,232.973818.18455,630.4907372,508.507922.31
600048.SH保利地产3,054,423.66832,018,292.303351.34507,222.0713449,747.508212.78340,683.6149251,054.802835.70
000024.SZ招商地产1,613,356.83211,008,050.769160.05473,809.2106250,424.471089.20255,063.1035122,052.5897108.98
600340.SH华夏幸福878,436.8918442,600.147598.47233,498.9166166,478.231840.26176,922.5274126,037.349940.37
002146.SZ荣盛发展762,411.3278554,180.641137.57160,145.1797108,844.120247.13111,896.591483,783.499933.55
600067.SH冠城大通435,457.6641342,260.197727.23138,457.806859,838.5135131.39114,609.085142,472.9794169.84
002244.SZ滨江集团501,462.907764,856.2358673.19133,194.015012,576.8937959.0493,211.23038,513.4658994.87
000402.SZ金融街647,735.3140513,882.529926.05120,274.5928162,126.6771-25.8175,757.7447110,209.0121-31.26
000718.SZ苏宁环球336,315.2288195,069.860972.41113,874.348555,585.2776104.8668,534.066141,277.639066.03
000656.SZ金科股份764,328.3520375,038.1348103.80100,244.031080,895.336323.9279,015.294764,728.750622.07
600649.SH城投控股266,305.2139123,727.3086115.2498,204.6631152,932.1393-35.7973,293.2832124,645.2534-41.20
600823.SH世茂股份417,042.4876355,244.219317.4085,177.228573,979.877315.1470,380.640759,653.257917.98
600383.SH金地集团879,493.1788647,324.004835.8778,572.247995,009.3827-17.3030,382.776550,246.2226-39.53
600266.SH北京城建275,580.0105151,527.381181.8776,744.514766,954.699714.6249,013.665039,229.367524.94
002016.SZ世荣兆业34,426.613214,869.7351131.5273,892.71063,553.25241,979.5841,246.48601,938.37342,027.89
600663.SH陆家嘴167,408.7371135,818.365623.2668,096.697457,442.258718.5549,097.543641,204.838319.15
000540.SZ中天城投273,685.8154139,119.949996.7362,951.994718,625.7384237.9850,493.025632,037.250657.61
000732.SZ泰禾集团215,772.096444,869.3408380.8954,162.17294,051.38261,236.8841,196.55554,208.8711878.80
601588.SH北辰实业286,675.4622267,490.12717.1749,379.132439,751.792924.2235,578.928529,198.005621.85
600658.SH电子城106,949.262630,126.3438255.0046,314.284313,805.3343235.4835,201.570310,397.9215238.54
000011.SZ深物业A134,819.410762,452.0270115.8845,909.760312,632.1890263.4335,360.09939,868.6285258.31
600675.SH中华企业235,605.7913114,763.9122105.3044,639.870948,842.8992-8.6134,241.479032,759.45664.52
600094.SH大名城139,688.676844,646.3997212.8843,072.139513,998.2243207.7020,829.77896,807.8840205.97
600748.SH上实发展218,380.3567186,894.360616.8541,287.845965,351.3760-36.8229,126.551652,335.7905-44.35
600162.SH香江控股145,160.872042,428.8564242.1340,672.6668-4,534.7949996.9013,387.9850-5,168.5217359.03
000620.SZ新华联118,270.766060,674.155494.9339,899.490419,089.1675109.0230,700.742513,764.6828123.04
000926.SZ福星股份315,043.1836276,709.863213.8538,767.842033,851.709714.5227,861.280224,378.148714.29
600724.SH宁波富达160,515.4484146,447.13109.6136,952.915723,191.654659.3424,009.555016,302.157847.28
000006.SZ深振业A117,052.2470151,370.7197-22.6735,433.626238,504.3940-7.9827,015.782426,374.13042.43
000537.SZ广宇发展93,991.772592,991.94081.0834,024.725935,330.6702-3.7017,440.253117,565.9451-0.72
600376.SH首开股份398,259.0966329,201.811520.9833,170.000552,659.7938-37.0135,289.770235,933.8303-1.79
600684.SH珠江实业118,146.616966,392.430977.9532,980.365918,407.365079.1724,728.170113,775.888179.50
600743.SH华远地产161,235.7817121,883.019232.2932,399.725433,745.1542-3.9922,842.209921,951.81814.06
000031.SZ中粮地产292,342.8037122,257.5220139.1230,659.176520,489.832249.6310,831.56816,083.337278.05
600007.SH中国国贸101,751.975496,145.38095.8330,373.650524,779.081722.5823,001.907619,540.224217.72
600064.SH南京高科181,666.265992,475.913196.4528,498.245625,035.596913.8323,920.493420,382.896117.36
000042.SZ深长城58,991.0118118,303.7086-50.1428,107.837031,234.7830-10.0120,987.966123,127.1420-9.25
000981.SZ银亿股份160,440.574772,343.0978121.7827,981.775219,377.917344.4019,814.177117,784.024211.42
000046.SZ泛海建设154,072.185063,227.2126143.6827,682.68254,849.0612470.8920,178.07103,013.0924569.68
600639.SH浦东金桥65,879.155055,543.182118.6126,519.515023,902.100710.9519,723.031318,919.12924.25
600657.SH信达地产138,064.3159138,051.75710.0125,942.596028,151.7898-7.8523,301.819718,853.714423.59
000979.SZ中弘股份84,894.9490177,781.3997-52.2525,261.811049,179.6212-48.6323,913.792943,674.5322-45.25
000517.SZ荣安地产248,356.582750,366.8775393.1025,187.511610,509.0268139.6819,495.08688,208.7696137.49
000506.SZ中润资源67,168.510559,277.121413.3125,105.45248,831.0173184.2922,128.44796,171.8557258.54
600208.SH新湖中宝315,227.7346225,462.719139.8124,844.189411,777.4654110.9522,715.883728,202.0912-19.45
600665.SH天地源123,633.7381112,941.26399.4723,863.112823,708.71810.6517,997.821617,307.23993.99
600185.SH格力地产96,492.350274,946.439228.7523,282.156823,891.0293-2.5518,807.173017,834.65555.45
000671.SZ阳光城283,192.2280141,508.5322100.1222,292.382312,540.059777.7714,058.07529,569.586946.90
000616.SZ亿城股份159,015.5938143,447.665810.8522,201.400329,516.8091-24.7819,017.057721,019.3066-9.53
600622.SH嘉宝集团87,434.7612140,599.5257-37.8121,978.616523,612.4191-6.9216,940.489418,988.6600-10.79
600240.SH华业地产84,076.404365,646.818028.0720,352.149913,185.727954.3514,918.63659,544.206356.31
002133.SZ广宇集团84,839.330677,204.79369.8919,610.686017,770.310810.3613,208.430711,229.900217.62
002305.SZ南国置业68,853.15049,242.0633645.0017,956.55162,132.0939742.2011,660.94921,135.6613926.80
600533.SH栖霞建设116,272.8143139,511.8379-16.6617,126.306130,730.0534-44.279,522.673418,260.6893-47.85
002285.SZ世联地产107,205.584568,849.908655.7116,197.16945,872.0598175.8310,436.29114,253.9813145.33
000861.SZ海印股份100,932.289998,272.67092.7114,947.616625,841.3119-42.1615,265.494319,174.8657-20.39
600510.SH黑牡丹183,463.8842161,666.009313.4814,641.323620,301.7767-27.8810,381.316519,542.1315-46.88
000809.SZ铁岭新城35,620.859710,178.1532249.9714,277.4576712.40451,904.1210,052.663133.608629,810.97
600246.SH万通地产70,951.460163,453.596411.8213,009.27727,930.745364.0412,042.59962,060.1556484.55
600736.SH苏州高新107,765.0277107,587.87880.1612,896.737812,857.12180.318,252.41667,647.74457.91
600325.SH华发股份178,456.3766181,835.5584-1.8612,011.871442,065.6875-71.445,640.253424,431.4741-76.91
000573.SZ粤宏远A55,685.669229,712.433487.4210,734.64003,348.0991220.628,917.94372,887.3195208.87
000667.SZ名流置业96,260.527070,755.744736.0510,712.93529,632.038311.226,512.53996,583.6728-1.08
600638.SH新黄浦27,212.200120,961.330429.8210,611.47336,568.724161.559,992.17508,605.458516.11
000736.SZ中房地产61,698.472021,065.5702192.8910,484.18989,988.36194.968,133.19549,411.4629-13.58
000797.SZ中国武夷93,282.277873,607.644226.7310,394.47608,261.973425.814,630.86673,820.832721.20
600791.SH京能置业29,187.046438,026.6361-23.2510,150.723212,227.5374-16.984,385.92495,332.7705-17.76
000965.SZ天保基建54,340.169152,038.01384.4210,053.69268,666.532316.018,182.97747,338.901211.50
000040.SZ宝安地产21,334.987932,672.9410-34.708,534.141917,994.7157-52.576,952.366312,753.5265-45.49
600604.SH市北高新13,815.676112,409.690511.338,014.60925,928.863135.185,191.33244,949.42934.89
600173.SH卧龙地产45,830.702939,232.105316.827,967.84207,572.83285.225,743.30254,786.920919.98
000886.SZ海南高速19,644.664120,066.4552-2.107,590.02948,061.5057-5.857,659.64847,404.11353.45
000863.SZ三湘股份25,193.32479,232.8850172.877,459.46879,074.6927-17.806,899.516210,935.9030-36.91
600773.SH西藏城投43,953.479939,914.108610.127,403.34359,277.0246-20.205,468.85676,890.2363-20.63
600641.SH万业企业43,362.447410,986.7915294.686,787.3473748.0413807.355,337.3677697.2595665.48
600052.SH浙江广厦79,313.128446,284.639871.366,754.3813-3,870.6928274.503,083.6678-5,500.6089156.06
600621.SH华鑫股份32,148.267733,081.7671-2.826,020.93198,931.3876-32.596,368.09258,377.8918-23.99
600565.SH迪马股份156,873.2936133,932.480217.136,016.597912,558.5735-52.091,685.46262,142.0894-21.32
000514.SZ渝开发29,255.221218,619.834057.125,614.35982,068.3260171.445,593.63244,304.666929.94
600223.SH鲁商置业82,457.600037,367.9815120.665,324.54733,118.869570.723,626.61292,444.856748.34
000631.SZ顺发恒业34,301.2183117,601.1769-70.835,067.890137,847.9433-86.614,269.543828,132.7156-84.82
000608.SZ阳光股份31,191.000025,325.100023.164,506.10007,330.9000-38.533,299.00005,290.8000-37.65
000534.SZ万泽股份25,418.280721,875.570616.194,465.30844,684.6400-4.682,252.45482,976.8740-24.33
002208.SZ合肥城建58,621.327934,423.567870.294,328.52047,117.4592-39.183,336.32555,253.0596-36.49
600322.SH天房发展75,603.5599164,988.0735-54.184,262.554713,254.9870-67.847,980.305610,133.7069-21.25
000882.SZ华联股份51,707.356838,818.732933.204,251.81463,462.044622.813,174.41132,820.557312.55
000558.SZ莱茵置业119,687.138150,021.6458139.274,201.87702,042.7398105.703,284.95893,449.4948-4.77
600158.SH中体产业39,598.407658,353.4282-32.143,687.99496,466.2267-42.973,696.03343,704.7027-0.23
600077.SH宋都股份25,468.4916180,795.0923-85.913,433.924746,900.1103-92.683,041.407127,564.6829-88.97
600606.SH金丰投资15,614.244420,534.8631-23.963,303.79394,940.3785-33.132,710.27754,815.3573-43.72
600759.SH正和股份77,357.543581,083.4590-4.603,290.99358,016.8475-58.952,338.15863,970.2783-41.11
600745.SH中茵股份90,018.607875,160.075919.772,939.918310,878.0444-72.972,292.88337,774.1304-70.51
600647.SH同达创业13,055.972715,355.7511-14.982,879.09243,982.8371-27.71954.41191,301.1862-26.65
600696.SH多伦股份4,899.5711163.03022,905.322,545.8712256.9429890.832,325.1603551.2986321.76
002077.SZ大港股份101,405.6885134,265.6061-24.471,722.05902,830.6079-39.162,246.33613,097.8999-27.49
000029.SZ深深房A32,068.786144,736.4203-28.321,565.82425,327.5855-70.611,305.03404,008.4098-67.44
600733.SHS前锋10,266.0380106.99379,494.991,495.5448-677.3164320.802,334.8124-518.5914550.22
000036.SZ华联控股9,034.263523,245.5303-61.141,424.11348,815.2624-83.84221.18734,080.6900-94.58
600503.SH华丽家族39,467.182280,287.2136-50.841,205.515610,402.4106-88.411,234.27333,494.9398-64.68
000150.SZ宜华地产2,229.55154,432.4875-49.701,198.0088698.834371.431,080.4375282.5895282.33
000918.SZ嘉凯城245,080.9715151,877.770761.371,086.8451-36,992.6988102.942,054.3669-32,809.8729106.26
000511.SZ银基发展28,830.534318,377.723256.881,073.43682,291.2005-53.15921.09361,615.1223-42.97
600239.SH云南城投86,583.448326,431.7848227.571,058.7909878.450820.53-6,602.25801,005.0503-756.91
000670.SZS舜元7,431.15133,098.6100139.82993.2116394.8857151.52560.1011129.9862330.89
000668.SZ荣丰控股3,866.94643,415.716813.21859.7900126.8369577.87134.5907219.3004-38.63
000014.SZ沙河股份24,989.30268,135.4252207.17831.6449-763.0776208.99-701.1188-1,074.821134.77
600053.SH中江地产16,428.40023,856.5211325.99808.9914213.9160278.18582.4098120.8703381.85
600807.SH天业股份24,207.151112,634.029591.60656.4569743.6393-11.72580.0320511.021313.50
600615.SH丰华股份20.18251,709.8785-98.82466.859673.6641533.77469.9660154.4766204.23
600716.SH凤凰股份19,603.054936,837.1916-46.78415.28986,278.8254-93.391,079.56125,603.8134-80.74
600862.SH南通科技57,478.405535,405.922262.34295.2708807.3798-63.43246.43061,641.2641-84.99
600393.SH东华实业17,359.561421,349.5584-18.69282.72361,402.1044-79.84279.95691,909.8020-85.34
002113.SZ天润控股924.87271,316.0772-29.73252.9225316.0098-19.96254.8855275.0671-7.34
000691.SZ亚太实业1,435.86651,575.4409-8.86218.5788162.386834.6024.359945.1023-45.99
000567.SZ海德股份35.2779300.6659-88.27118.1837-90.6653230.35117.7764-100.2908217.43
000526.SZ银润投资509.0286488.93644.117.8622-11.6816167.30-39.8958-18.6608-113.79
000502.SZ绿景控股851.94741,522.4543-44.04-330.1934-365.79729.73-447.0447-454.08381.55
600159.SH大龙地产11,715.25226,710.426974.58-366.2471-2,337.374784.33309.6874-1,886.1815116.42
000038.SZ深大通2,894.44221,734.959166.83-431.4962-489.344211.82-336.2030-492.123531.68
000546.SZ光华控股2,789.811511,152.9613-74.99-464.17182,026.9089-122.90-572.34171,309.8180-143.70
000711.SZ天伦置业2,979.60473,088.8086-3.54-652.4538348.4067-287.27-776.7821252.4960-407.64
000628.SZ高新发展69,497.510457,009.756421.90-654.7014-275.5713-137.58-495.1738-470.5434-5.23
600890.SH中房股份414.8242403.35242.84-730.8205-951.440323.19-766.4054-951.459019.45
600732.SH上海新梅1,024.31291,406.2685-27.16-806.8491-1,366.472540.95-799.8260-901.757011.30
000838.SZ国兴地产568.873812.00004,640.61-909.6928-1,658.571745.15-906.1928-1,649.432445.06
600275.SH武昌鱼528.6275479.380610.27-1,175.54482,967.5515-139.61-1,163.62482,997.0447-138.83
600767.SH运盛实业21,715.52485,283.2860311.02-1,520.0777-714.3881-112.78-1,264.1930-471.1252-168.33
600683.SH京投银泰47,624.729717,701.3952169.05-1,577.2374-16,299.851190.32-1,041.9224-12,756.343391.83
600747.SH大连控股11,250.047615,746.7720-28.56-1,937.0667-4,927.806760.69-1,782.7872-4,826.537163.06
600215.SH长春经开25,136.69875,954.4413322.15-2,070.0245-5,134.060959.68-1,970.0273-2,366.927816.77
000609.SZ绵世股份714.4666877.0632-18.54-2,099.38512,635.1825-179.67-1,763.48102,370.2225-174.40
000005.SZ世纪星源2,208.47342,971.5657-25.68-2,253.6507-2,941.034423.37-2,245.6860-2,925.818923.25
600555.SH*ST九龙5,585.513111,517.0775-51.50-2,358.03491,640.4375-243.74-2,259.05961,778.1513-227.05
000043.SZ中航地产119,672.8964100,792.560218.73-3,456.58162,195.4837-257.44-3,266.6924355.1696-1,019.76
000056.SZ*ST国商1,230.90173,392.7325-63.72-5,825.60616,200.8495-193.95-3,953.66176,766.3758-158.43
000505.SZ*ST珠江10,722.302110,834.1956-1.03-6,560.6977-3,525.1504-86.11-6,445.5009-3,773.4798-70.81
000897.SZ津滨发展85,527.9184101,239.6598-15.52-13,908.7326-5,744.2357-142.13-12,047.4037-4,743.6639-153.97
600225.SH天津松江34,100.193682,296.7501-58.56-24,041.7229-9,509.9393-152.81-22,177.5354-7,163.7187-209.58
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